Adaptive Aggregated Predictions for Renewable Energy Systems

Csáji, Balázs Csanád and Kovács, András and Váncza, József (2014) Adaptive Aggregated Predictions for Renewable Energy Systems. In: 2014 IEEE Symposium on Adaptive Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning (ADPRL). IEEE, Piscataway, pp. 132-139. ISBN 978-1-4799-4552-8 10.1109/ADPRL.2014.7010625


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The paper addresses the problem of generating forecasts for energy production and consumption processes in a renewable energy system. The forecasts are made for a prototype public lighting microgrid, which includes photovoltaic panels and LED luminaries that regulate their lighting levels, as inputs for a receding horizon controller. Several stochastic models are fitted to historical times-series data and it is argued that side information, such as clear-sky predictions or the typical system behavior, can be used as exogenous inputs to increase their performance. The predictions can be further improved by combining the forecasts of several models using online learning, the framework of prediction with expert advice. The paper suggests an adaptive aggregation method which also takes side information into account, and makes a state-dependent aggregation. Numerical experiments are presented, as well, showing the efficiency of the estimated timeseries models and the proposed aggregation approach.

Item Type: Book Section
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics and Computer Science > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science / számítástechnika, számítógéptudomány
Divisions: Research Laboratory on Engineering & Management Intelligence
SWORD Depositor: MTMT Injector
Depositing User: MTMT Injector
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2015 14:38
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2015 14:38

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