On head-to-head results as tie-breaker and consequent opportunities for collusion
Csató, László (2025) On head-to-head results as tie-breaker and consequent opportunities for collusion. IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS, 36 (2). pp. 215-230. ISSN 1471-678X 10.1093/imaman/dpae016
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Abstract
Accepted by: Phil ScarfThe outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion opportunities caused by this particular ranking rule in a single round-robin tournament with four teams. According to a simulation model based on the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship, merely the tie-breaking rule increases the probability of reaching a situation vulnerable to collusion by between 11.5 and 14.8 percentage points. This risk can scarcely be mitigated by a static match schedule. Therefore, tournament organizers are strongly encouraged to choose goal difference as the primary tie-breaking rule, similar to the official policy of FIFA.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics and Computer Science > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science / számítástechnika, számítógéptudomány |
| Divisions: | Research Laboratory on Engineering & Management Intelligence > Research Group of Operations Research and Decision Systems |
| SWORD Depositor: | MTMT Injector |
| Depositing User: | MTMT Injector |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Jul 2025 06:18 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Jul 2025 06:18 |
| URI: | https://eprints.sztaki.hu/id/eprint/10935 |
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